SnapDraft Picks for 4/16

The following analysis is for the games of Friday, April 16th.

Pos Name Salary
C Joe Mauer 2,780,000
1B Albert Pujols 3,890,000
2B Chase Utley 3,070,000
3B Scott Rolen 1,990,000
SS Stephen Drew 2,230,000
OF Curtis Granderson 3,270,000
OF Nelson Cruz 1,950,000
OF Carlos Quentin 1,940,000
P Chris Carpenter 2,680,000
P Roy Halladay 3,140,000

- You can try and get cute by going with someone besides Joe Mauer, but why mess with it?

- Against Oliver Perez in his career, Albert Pujols is hitting .393 (11-for-28) with three home runs. Another option to consider here is Miguel Cabrera, who has a .545 career batting clip (6-for-11) against Felix Hernandez. If you want to avoid the obvious plays at first base, Joey Votto is intriguing, as he holds a .625 career batting average (10-for-16) against Zach Duke.

- Chase Utley has seven hits in 18 at-bats (.389) against Anibal Sanchez, making him a great option. If you’re looking to go cheaper at second base, Mark Ellis, who is a .375 (12-for-32) career hitter against Kevin Millwood, could be an option.

- Scott Rolen has been swinging a hot bat of late, and he’s had Zach Duke’s number in his career, sporting a .438 average (7-for-16) with a home run.

- Stephen Drew has fared well against Jon Garland in his career. In nine showdowns against the right-hander, the shortstop has five hits (.556) and two homers.

- Nelson Cruz is hitless in three career at-bats against CC Sabathia, but with the power he’s shown in the early going, he’s a guy I want in my lineup.

- He’s generally a bit too pricey for my blood, but Curtis Granderson makes the cut this time. In four at-bats against Rangers hurler Scott Feldman, he has four hits, including three home runs.

- If you’re looking to spend a little less in the outfield, Adam Lind holds a .417 career average (5-for-12) against Angels ace Jered Weaver.

- Roy Halladay may be one of the most expensive starting pitching options in SnapDraft, but who cares? In 16 innings this season, he’s allowed only one earned run and struck out 17.

Three Thoughts: Toronto Blue Jays

Continuing our team-by-team, three-thought series, here are my early 2010 thoughts on the Blue Jays.

1. Don’t overlook Shaun Marcum’s return
Marcum did not pitch for the Blue Jays at all in 2009 due to Tommy John surgery. His only game action came in the form of five starts late in the season spread across three levels of the minors. In those five starts, he posted a 2.30 ERA with a 7.5 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9. Yes, the sample size is small, but the fact his command was so sharp so soon after returning from surgery is a very good sign. Prior to the surgery, Marcum posted a 3.39 ERA in 25 starts with the Jays in 2008 with a 7.3 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. This April, Marcum will be roughly 19 months post-op, and I have every reason to believe he’ll return to his ‘08 form. He’s fallen off the radar for most owners, but he’s certainly a guy to keep in mind for the late rounds.

2. There’s still hope for Edwin Encarnacion
Most fantasy owners have, for the most part, written Encarnacion off as a fantasy option. I, on the other hand, still see some potential value here. He hit just .225 last season and was limited to just 85 games due to wrist and knee injuries, but once he finally got healthy late in the season, he batted .317 with seven home runs and 15 RBI over his last 17 games. Not only that, but he’s only one year removed from slamming 26 dingers in 2008 and still has a hold on the third base job in Toronto, as the organization has made it clear they intend on moving the newly acquired Brett Wallace across the diamond to first base. It won’t take more than a late-round flyer to secure Encarnacion’s services in 2010, but there’s still potential here.

3. Jason Frasor can handle closer role
Whether Frasor will be given the opportunity to hold down the closer job on his own remains to be seen. After all, both Scott Downs and Kevin Gregg have closing experience. But should the Blue Jays give him the job and let him run with it, he should hold his own. A new split-finger pitch helped Frasor take the next step last season, as he posted the best walk rate (2.5) of his career and his strikeout rate was close to 9.0 (8.7) after falling below 8.0 in 2008. And the fact he saved double-digit games last year after Downs got hurt certainly helps his case. Given the other arms in the Jays’ bullpen, Frasor carries a fair amount of risk. But taking that risk could also pay big dividends, because the skills are there.

Three Thoughts: Tampa Bay Rays

Continuing our team-by-team, three-thought series, here are my early 2010 thoughts on the Rays.

1. Matt Garza is worth getting excited about
Garza may have won only eight games last season with an ERA barely under 4.00 and some fairly drastic home/road splits, but I’m still excited about the right-hander in 2010. Last year’s 8.4 K/9 rate was a significant increase over his 6.2 mark in 2008, and more closely resembles the dominance he displayed in four minor league seasons (10.9 K/9). If Garza can cut last season’s 3.5 walk rate closer to his 2008 mark (2.9) and eventually closer to his career minor league rate (2.6), he could be special. The fact he posted a combined 2.49 ERA in 10 starts against the Yankees and Red Sox in 2009 doesn’t hurt, either.

2. Don’t ignore Pat Burrell as a cheap power source
Burrell’s first season in Tampa didn’t go well. Limited to just 122 games due to a neck injury that sent him to the disabled list in May, he hit just .221 with 14 home runs and 64 RBI. At 33 and coming off an injury-riddled campaign, Burrell is at the point where a skills decline wouldn’t be out of the ordinary. That said, the slugger did hit at least 29 homers and never hit below .250 (not good, but significantly better than last year’s mark) from 2005-2008, so there’s reason to believe a bounceback is in store now that he’s had an entire offseason to get back to 100 percent. And with a current ADP of 332 (meaning he’s going undrafted in most mixed leagues), there’s almost no risk here.

3. I’ll take Kelly Shoppach as my second catcher, please
I won’t pretend there aren’t big holes in Shoppach’s game. He strikes out a ton, doesn’t hit right-handers well, and batted a dismal .214 in 217 at-bats with the Indians last season. Then again, there are some positives, too. Shoppach has 33 home runs over his last 623 big league at-bats, and he did bat a not-awful .261 in 2007 and 2008. Plus, he showed some real gains in 2009, improving his walk rate from 8.9% to 10.1%, striking out less, and posting a career-best 21.8% line drive rate. With regular playing time in Tampa Bay, there’s 20+ homer potential here, and he won’t kill you in the batting average department if his batting average returns to the .260 level. That’s production I’ll happily accept from my No. 2 catcher.

Three Thoughts: New York Yankees

Continuing our team-by-team, three-thought series, here are my early 2010 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. Brett Gardner has intriguing potential with playing time
Whether or not Gardner will in fact get significant playing time in 2010 remains to be seen. The Yankees currently plan to use a Gardner/Randy Winn platoon in left field, but you never know what the organization will do down the road. But assuming they follow through on their plan, Gardner is an intriguing fantasy option. While he’s not a great hitter by any stretch, he did steal 26 bases in just 248 at-bats with the Yankees last season, and he swiped 50 bags in 136 combined games between Triple-A and the big leagues in 2008. Not only that, but his 87 percent big-league success rate (39-for-45) shows he knows what he’s doing. If given 400-500 at-bats, there’s little reason why he can’t steal 40+ bases.

2. Curtis Granderson is more intriguing as a Yankee
Despite the 30 home runs, Granderson’s 2009 season was somewhat of a disappointment considering he hit just .249 (.280 in 2008) and scored just 91 runs despite accumulating his highest at-bat total ever (112 runs in 2008; 122 runs in 2007). However, batting atop the Yankees lineup, which scored a big-league best 915 runs last season, he’s a threat to the lead the American League in runs if his average rebounds. Additionally, given the short right-field porch in the New Yankee Stadium, Granderson could improve on the career-best 30 dingers he hit last season. There are some concerns here, such as whether he can rebound against left-handers (he hit just .183 vs. them last season), but the positives outweigh the negatives in 2010.

3. Javier Vazquez makes me nervous
In 2009, Vazquez’s first season with the Braves, he had a career-best campaign, going 15-10 with a 2.87 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 238 Ks in 219 innings. Alas, he was dealt to the Yankees over the offseason in the Melky Cabrera deal, making his outlook for 2010 a little murky. As we all remember, Vazquez’s one-year stint with the Yanks back in 2004 didn’t go well, as he sported a 4.91 ERA in 32 starts. We can argue that Vazquez has made strides as pitcher since then, but moving from the NL to the AL should still add at least a half run to his ERA, and let’s not forget he held a 4.67 ERA and 1.32 WHIP as recently as 2008 with the White Sox. I’m not necessarily predicting a collapse here, but I’m not drafting him as the ace he proved to be in Atlanta.

Tags: Brett Gardner, Curtis Granderson, Javier Vazquez

Three Thoughts: Boston Red Sox

Continuing our team-by-team, three-thought series, here are my early 2010 thoughts on the Red Sox.

1. Mixed feelings on Adrian Beltre
On one hand, Beltre is leaving Safeco Field, one of the least hitter-friendly parks in the majors, where he’s just a .252 career hitter, and he’s moving to Fenway Park, a big upgrade. Beltre also hit .290-30-108 in 144 road games over 2007 and 2008, his last two healthy seasons. But there’s the sticking point: health. Beltre was limited to just 111 games in 2009 due to shoulder (and groin) issues, and thumb injuries kept him from reaching 150 games in 2007 and 2008. This looks to be a great situation for Beltre to get a fresh start, but at age 30 these durability issues may not simply go away.

2. Don’t bet on a rebound from Dice-K
Few owners are excited about Daisuke Matsuzaka following his injury-stricken 2009 campaign that saw him go 4-6 with a 5.76 ERA and 1.87 WHIP in 12 starts. Then again, the right-hander is also only one year removed from winning 18 games and posting a 2.90 ERA. Even so, there are too many warning signs in Dice-K’s skill set for me to predict a rebound in 2010. The shoulder issues that plagued him last year are one thing, but almost all indicators show his 2008 season was a fluke, anyway. His 5.1 BB/9 rate was a disaster, and his ERA was artificially deflated by a .267 BABIP. Plus, he allowed just 12 home runs despite being a flyball pitcher in Fenway Park. Talk about luck. Even with health, this is not a fantasy ace; he’s AL-only material, at best.

3. Marco Scutaro has nowhere to go but down
Scutaro turned his career year in 2009 – .282-12-60-100-14 – into a two-year contract with the Red Sox. Good for him. But fantasy owners should realize last season was a picture-perfect scenario for Scutaro in which everything came together perfectly. The fact he posted his highest full-season flyball rate (43.6%) and walk rate (13.2%) is encouraging, but I have a difficult time believing he’s suddenly turned a corner at age 34. Scutaro is a career .265 hitter who never hit double-digit home runs or stole double-digit bases prior to last season, and while he’ll be part of a better lineup in Boston, he’ll be batting at the bottom of the order, as opposed to leadoff, where he spent every game with the Blue Jays in 2009. When evaluating Scutaro, look at the big picture – not what you saw last season.

Tags: Adrian Beltre, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Dice-K, Marcu Scutaro

Three Thoughts: Baltimore Orioles

As we get set for spring training, let’s get a new series started here at Under The Tag. Over the next couple of weeks and months, we’ll go team by team and dissect three of my early 2010 thoughts for each squad.

1. Chris Tillman could surprise
Tillman’s 2009 stat line with the Orioles – 5.40 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 12 starts – says you’re better off looking elsewhere for starting pitching help this season. And the 5.4 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 rates don’t say much different. But let’s not forget this former second-round pick held a 2.70 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 18 Triple-A starts before his promotion last year, not to mention a 9.2 K/9 rate and 2.4 walk rate. Pitching in the AL East is no picnic, and there are surely some more bumps in the road, but Tillman is the perfect type of pitcher to target late in AL-only leagues. His draft-day cost will be minimal, but the upside is significant.

2. Brian Roberts’ decline could be around the corner
I won’t argue that Roberts isn’t a reliable fantasy option. I currently have him ranked fourth amongst second basemen, and he was a top-35 hitter last season, hitting .283 with 16 home runs, 79 RBI, 30 steals and 110 runs. That said, it’s hard not to notice that his stolen bases and stolen base attempts have declined drastically the last two years. He went from 50 steals (57 attempts) in 2007 to 40 steals (50 attempts) in 2008 and 30 steals (37 attempts) last season. His declining stolen base total can be at least partly attributed to the fact hit a career-high 56 doubles last season and hit 16 homers (his highest total since 2005), but for a guy nearing his mid 30s, trends like this one need to be monitored.

3. Garrett Atkins has nowhere to go but up
On the surface, this statement is completely true. After all, Atkins hit just .226-9-48 in 126 games last year, so it’s not like things can get much worse. But that doesn’t mean things will be getting a whole lot better, either. Atkins is just a career .252 hitter away from Coors Field, including a .200 road average last season, so a move to another park – even an above-average hitting one like Camden Yards – won’t help his bottom line.
His average will rebound to some extent this year as last year’s .247 BABIP normalizes, but the fact he hit just .199 against right-handers in 2009 is not a good sign. Atkins is only AL-only fodder at this point.

Tags: Chris Tillman, Garrett Atkins

Updated Top 10s

Towards the end of the 2009 season and into the offseason, I offered my preliminary Top 10s for 2010. Well, as the adage goes, time brings change. Thus, my Top 10s have changed considerably over the last couple months. They’re sure to continue to shift as we near spring training, but I thought I’d pass along the updated lists…

Catchers

1. Joe Mauer
2. Victor Martinez
3. Brian McCann
4. Kurt Suzuki
5. Jorge Posada
6. Bengie Molina
7. Miguel Montero
8. Matt Wieters
9. Russell Martin
10. Mike Napoli

First Base

1. Albert Pujols
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Ryan Howard
4. Mark Teixeira
5. Prince Fielder
6. Adrian Gonzalez
7. Justin Morneau
8. Kendry Morales
9. Joey Votto
10. Lance Berkman

Second Base

1. Chase Utley
2. Ian Kinsler
3. Brian Roberts
4. Dustin Pedroia
5. Brandon Phillips
6. Ben Zobrist
7. Robinson Cano
8. Aaron Hill
9. Dan Uggla
10. Ian Stewart

Third Base

1. Alex Rodriguez
2. David Wright
3. Evan Longoria
4. Pablo Sandoval
5. Ryan Zimmerman
6. Mark Reynolds
7. Kevin Youkilis
8. Chone Figgins
9. Aramis Ramirez
10. Michael Young

Shortstop

1. Hanley Ramirez
2. Jose Reyes
3. Troy Tulowitzki
4. Jimmy Rollins
5. Derek Jeter
6. Alexei Ramirez
7. Miguel Tejada
8. Jhonny Peralta
9. Yunel Escobar
10. Elvis Andrus

Outfield

1. Ryan Braun
2. Matt Kemp
3. Carl Crawford
4. Jacoby Ellsbury
5. Matt Holliday
6. Justin Upton
7. Ichiro Suzuki
8. Grady Sizemore
9. Bobby Abreu
10. B.J. Upton

Starting Pitchers

1. Tim Lincecum
2. Roy Halladay
3. Zack Greinke
4. Felix Hernandez
5. CC Sabathia
6. Justin Verlander
7. Jon Lester
8. Adam Wainwright
9. Dan Haren
10. Cliff Lee

Relief Pitchers

1. Joe Nathan
2. Jonathan Broxton
3. Jonathan Papelbon
4. Mariano Rivera
5. Joakim Soria
6. Andrew Bailey
7. Heath Bell
8. Huston Street
9. Francisco Rodriguez
10. Chad Qualls

Top 10 Closers for 2010

Continuing the rundown of my top 10 players per position for 2010, here’s my take on the closers:

1. Joe Nathan – Posted a career-high 47 saves in 2009 and is as safe as they come.

2. Mariano Rivera – He’s getting up there in age, but he keeps doing it year after year.

3. Jonathan Broxton – With 114 Ks in 76 innings, it’s easy to see why he’s so high up on this list.

4. Jonathan Papelbon – His walk rate shot up to 3.2 in 2009, but he’s still elite.

5. Joakim Soria – Soria saved only 30 games last year, but he’s still one of the game’s best.

6. Heath Bell – Bell made Padres fans forget about Trevor Hoffman very quickly.

7. David Aardsma – The high walk rate (4.3) is a concern, but he misses enough bats to make up for it.

8. Francisco Rodriguez – His numbers are trending in the wrong direction, but he still racks up the saves.

9. Andrew Bailey – Bailey may deserve to be higher on this list, but I want to see a little more.

10. Huston Street – I still worry about his durability, but it’s hard to argue with a 10.2 K/ 9 rate and 1.9 BB/9 rate.

Top 10 Starting Pitchers for 2010

Continuing the rundown of my top 10 players per position for 2010, here’s my take on the starting pitchers:

1. Tim Lincecum – This list can be put together in a variety of ways, but this is the one no-brainer.

2. Roy Halladay – Few pitchers in the game are as reliable as Halladay, who struck out a career-best 208 hitters in 2009.

3. Felix Hernandez – Felix finally put it all together after a few seasons of not living up to the hype.

4. CC Sabathia – CC’s first year in pinstripes was a success, though his K/9 rate dropped from 8.9 to 7.7.

5. Zack Greinke – The 2.16 ERA and 242 strikeouts established him as one of the best in the game. He won 16 games for a terrible Royals, which is impressive all by itself, but that total may be difficult to repeat.

6. Justin Verlander – Bounced back after a disappointing 2008 season. His 269 Ks led the big leagues.

7. Dan Haren – Posted a career high 223 strikeouts and has made at least 33 starts in five straight seasons.

8. Johan Santana – Santana is expected to be fully recovery from elbow surgery by next season, but I’m concerned enough to have him this low in the top-10.

9. Adam Wainwright – Wainwright posted career highs in wins, innings, strikeouts and ERA in 2009. What’s not to like?

10. Chris Carpenter – His low strikeout total (144) is a negative, but his 2.24 ERA and 1.01 WHIP means he needs to be on this list.

Top 10 Outfielders for 2010

Continuing the rundown of my top 10 players per position for 2010, here’s my take on the outfielders:

1. Ryan Braun – With a .320 BA, 32 home runs, 114 RBI and 20 steals, Braun has cemented himself at the top of the outfield heap.

2. Matt Kemp – Kemp has emerged as one of the elite at the position and should once again challenge for 30/30 in 2010.

3. Carl Crawford – Proved he was fully healthy after an injury-stricken 2008 season. His 60 steals were a career high.

4. Jacoby Ellsbury – His 70 steals led baseball, and he hit .301, to boot.

5. Matt Holliday – Holliday’s value could fluctuate depending on where he signs, but he’s still one of the top options at the position.

6. Ichiro Suzuki – Ichiro’s age indicates he could be slowing down soon, but his .352 batting average this season tells us otherwise.

7. Grady Sizemore – I’m not fully confident with this ranking because of Sizemore’s injury issues, but early indications are that he’ll be 100 percent in spring training.

8. Jason Bay – The .267 batting average was a little lacking, but his 36 home runs and 119 RBI were both career highs. His 13 steals were his most since 2005, as well.

9. Justin Upton – Hit .300 with 26 home runs and 20 steals and there’s still room to grow.

10. Carlos Beltran – If healthy, he’s still one of the best multi-dimensional outfielders in the game.

Tags: Carl Crawford, Carlos Beltran, Grady Sizemore, Ichiro Suzuki, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jason Bay, Justin Upton, Matt Holliday, Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun

Top 10 Shortstops for 2010

Continuing the rundown of my top 10 players per position for 2010, here’s my take on the shortstops:

1. Hanley Ramirez – He’s not running as much as he used to, but he’s still a 25/25 threat at the shortstop position and will be adding a batting title to his resume.

2. Jimmy Rollins – The batting average is down, but the rest of his numbers are there. I’m still buying.

3. Troy Tulowitzki – With 30-plus homers, 20 steals and a batting average near .300, he’s cemented as one of the top commodities at the position.

4. Derek Jeter – Talks of his demise were obviously overstated. That said, I’m not comfortable predicting a repeat.

5. Jose Reyes – The latest word is that Reyes’ hamstring surgery won’t impact his 2010, but he still has to be considered a major risk at this point. I can see moving him higher as the season gets closer, depending on how he looks.

6. Alexei Ramirez – Didn’t meet lofty expectations, but still provided solid value across the board.

7. Jason Bartlett – Not sure where the power came from, but the speed is legit. Be careful to not overpay.

8. Elvis Andrus – Still has room to grow, but showed great progress in his rookie season and has 50-steal upside.

9. Miguel Tejada – The power isn’t what it used to be, but he can still produce runs and hit for average.

10. Yunel Escobar – Nothing flashy, but he does many things well.

Tags: Alexei Ramirez, Derek Jeter, Elvis Andrus, Hanley Ramirez, Jason Bartlett, Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes, Miguel Tejada, Troy Tulowitzki, Yunel Escobar

Top 10 Third Basemen for 2010

Continuing the rundown of my top 10 players per position for 2010, here’s my take on the third basemen:

1. Alex Rodriguez – Still at the top of the heap, even after an injury-shortened season.

2. Evan Longoria – Couldn’t keep things up after a torrid start, but there’s still nowhere for him to go but up.

3. David Wright – The power should rebound to an extent, but I don’t see him returning to 30 homers.

4. Mark Reynolds – The batting average hurts, and I definitely see a regression next season, but it’s hard to beat the power/speed combo.

5. Ryan Zimmmerman – Produced his first 30-homer, 100-RBI season and is still trending upward, assuming he can stay healthy.

6. Chone Figgins – After failing to play at least 120 games each of the last two years, Figgins is back on the top of his game.

7. Pablo Sandoval – Has established himself as one of the top young hitters in the game, although I’m not sure I see much more power development in the coming years.

8. Kevin Youkilis – Nothing flashy, but he gets the job done.

9. Aramis Ramirez – Still a top run producer at the position when healthy, but his lack of durability over the last few seasons drops him a couple spots.

10. Michael Young – No longer as valuable as a third baseman, but Young is still one of the more underrated players in the game.

Tags: A-Rod, Alex Rodriguez, Aramis Ramirez, Chone Figgins, David Wright, Evan Longoria, Kevin Youkilis, Mark Reynolds, Michael Young, Pablo Sandoval, Ryan Zimmerman

Top Second Basemen for 2010

Continuing the rundown of my top 10 players per position for 2010, here’s my take on the second basemen:

1. Chase Utley – No debate here. He’s the best in the business at the position.

2. Ian Kinsler – A higher batting average would be nice, but no one at second base can match his power/speedo combo.

3. Brian Roberts – Roberts is like a buffet. He offers owners plenty of everything.

4. Robinson Cano – Cano lacks speed, but he has power and is the best batting average bat at the position.

5. Dustin Pedroia – Aside from batting average, his numbers will end up being pretty close to last year’s.

6. Aaron Hill – I’ll expect a drop-off in 2010, but not much of one.

7. Brandon Phillips – Somewhat underappreciated considering he’s an annual 20/20 guy.

8. Ben Zobrist – A late bloomer, Zobrist does it all, although some regression could occur.

9. Jose Lopez – Lopez isn’t patient enough to consistently hit for a high average, but he’s entering his peak power years.

10. Asdrubal Cabrera – Not a sexy option, by any means, but he knows how to swipe a bag and could finish this year with a .300 batting average.

Tags: Aaron Hill, Asdrubal Cabrera, Ben Zobrist, Brandon Phillips, Brian Roberts, Chase Utley, Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler, Jose Lopez, Robinson Cano

Football Picks

Yes, this is supposed to be a baseball blog, but with the NFL season getting underway tonight, can you blame me if I can’t help but focus on the gridiron of late? I’ll continue going through my top 10s at each position for the 2010 baseball season at some point, but today I’m going to run down my picks for the 2009 NFL campaign. Here we go…

AFC East Winner: Patriots
AFC North Winner: Pittsburgh
AFC South Winner: Colts
AFC West Winner: Chargers
Wild Card Winners: Titans, Ravens

NFC East Winner: Giants
NFC North Winner: Packers
NFC South Winner: Falcons
NFC West Winner: Seahawks
Wild Card Winners: Eagles, Bears

AFC Champ: Patriots
NFC Champ: Packers

Super Bowl Winner: Patriots

Top 10 Catchers for 2010

Continuing with the trend of running down my top 10 players per position for 2010, here’s my take on the catchers:

1. Joe Mauer – Not 100 percent convinced the power is for real, but he’s hitting .373, so does it matter?

2. Victor Martinez – The fact he can play first base and DH when he’s not catching helps his value.

3. Brian McCann – McCann is the top hitting catcher in the National League, hands down.

4. Mike Napoli – He’s not a legit .290 hitter, but his power rivals that of any catcher in the game.

5. Jorge Posada – Posada’s age is a concern, but he just continues to hit.

6. Ryan Doumit – He’s struggled since coming back from injury, but I’m still a believer in his bat.

7. Bengie Molina – Not an outstanding option, but he’s solid amidst a bunch of question marks.

8. Geovany Soto – He worries me, but I don’t believe 2008 was a complete fluke.

9. Russell Martin – Martin isn’t running as much, and his power has disappeared. I’m pessimistic.

10. Matt Wieters – Has been unspectacular in his debut, but we all know the upside.

Tags: Bengie Molina, Brian McCann, Geovany Soto, Joe Mauer, Jorge Posada, Matt Wieters, Mike Napoli, Russell Martin, Ryan Doumit, Victor Martinez

Top 10 First Basemen for 2010

Here’s a quick rundown of my tentative top 10 first basemen for 2010. This list will obviously change dramatically over the offseason, but it’s always fun to start looking ahead. We’ll cover other positions in future installments.

1. Albert Pujols – He’s the only real no-brainer on the list.

2. Miguel Cabrera – Hasn’t shown the power upside of others, but only Albert can match his BA.

3. Mark Teixieira – Considered Fielder here, but Tex just feels safer.

4. Prince Fielder – Not convinced he’s a .300 hitter, but he’s a better hitter than Ryan Howard.

5. Ryan Howard – His batting average can hurt you, but his power is unmatched.

6. Justin Morneau – Isn’t elite in any category, but he’s productive across the board.

7. Adrian Gonzalez – Similar to Morneau, only with less batting average potential.

8. Lance Berkman – I’m not entirely confident with this ranking, but he should bounce back with health.

9. Kendry Morales – Coming into his own, with both power and BA potential. Could move higher.

10. Carlos Pena – Power production is great, but the batting average hurts.

Tags: Adrian Gonzalez, Albert Pujols, Carlos Pena, Justin Morneau, Kendry Morales, Lance Berkman, Mark Teixeira, Miguel Cabrera, Princer Fielder, Ryan Howard

Smoltz stellar in Cardinals debut

Welcome back to the National League, Mr. Smoltz.

In John Smoltz’s Cardinals debut on Sunday against the Padres, he hurled five shutout innings, allowing only three hits and no walks while striking out nine. He picked up the victory in the Cardinals’ 5-2 win in San Diego. Considering the right-hander entered Sunday’s outing with a 8.33 ERA in eight starts with the Red Sox, his performance against the Padres was both welcoming and surprising.

Obviously, it’s just one start, so it’s too early to draw any real conclusions about Smoltz and his prospects for the rest of the season, but let’s go over some of the theories as to why he had so much success on Sunday:

1. Smoltz said he tweaked his mechanics prior to his Cardinals debut, putting his heel closer to the pitching rubber.

2. The Cardinals say Smoltz was tipping his pitches while with the Red Sox. The right-hander confirms this could be a possibility.

3. The Padres are terrible, as they sport a .239 team batting average, the worst mark in the league, implying that the team’s lineup can make even a marginal pitcher look like a Cy Young candidate.

All told, the reasoning is probably a mixture of all three. Smoltz will likely get only a handful of starts the rest of the way, but he immediately becomes an option in NL-only leagues and is worth monitoring in mixed formats.

Tags: John Smoltz

Alex Gordon to Triple-A

The Royals made a surprising move on Tuesday, sending Alex Gordon to Triple-A Omaha to open up a roster spot for Kyle Farnsworth, who is returning from the disabled list after being sidelined since June 24 with a groin injury. Gordon will join the team for Wednesday’s game at Tacoma.

At first glance, this is just another head-scratching move by a Royals team that is yet again collecting dust in the basement of the AL Central. However, after looking at the move more closely, it actually makes sense.

Gordon is hitting just .198 this season and just .227 since returning from his hip injury, and, if you remember, he went straight from Double-A in 2006 to the big leagues in 2007, so this will be his first exposure to Triple-A. Gordon has had some success in the big leagues, but he’s been a disappointment overall, as hit .248 career average in 314 big-league games can attest.

As an aside, there are reports that say this move could have been made to delay Gordon’s impending free agency. Apparently, if he stays in the minors for more than 20 days, he won’t become a free agent until 2013 instead of 2012. That said, big-league rosters expand on September 1 (and a player’s service time isn’t affected if he’s called up at that point), so I’m not sure how Gordon’s service time will be affected in all of this.

All told, it certainly couldn’t hurt for Gordon to spend a few weeks in the minors as he tries to find his stroke. And with the Royals having nothing to play for, what do they have to lose?

Tags: Add new tag, Alex Gordon, Royals, Triple-A Omaha

Surprising Second-Half Starts

As fantasy owners, we love to dissect first- and second-half stats. We look at past splits when evaluating mid-season player trades, and we use them when evaluating players and projecting breakout or fall-offs for the upcoming season, among other things. At this point, we aren’t even three weeks past the All-Star break, but why wait? Let’s look at some lesser-appreciated commodities who have started the second half off on the right foot.

Nyjer Morgan: After hitting a respectable .280 with 24 swipes in the first half, Morgan has hit .403-1-6 with eight steals in 77 post-break at-bats. However, it wasn’t necessarily the All-Star break that sparked the speedster’s hot streak; it was his trade to the Nationals. Before the deal, he hit .277 with 18 steals in 71 games. Since being traded, he’s batting .367 with 14 swipes in just 30 games. That’s an average of 0.47 steals per game with the Nats. By comparison, Carl Crawford, who leads the majors with 51 steals, averages a nearly identical 0.48 steals per game. Morgan’s stolen-base pace will surely wane over the final two months, but he should still be considered an elite steals source the rest of the way.

Eugenio Velez: Velez was largely worthless for the Giants early in the season, when he hit just .194 with no RBI and one steal in 36 at-bats, but he’s looked like a different hitter since getting called up in late July. In 38 post-break at-bats, he’s hitting .447 with a home run and eight RBI. He’s yet to steal a base, which is his real calling card in fantasy, but he’s settled into the Giants’ leadoff spot for the time being, which will, at the very least, give him an opportunity to score runs. Watch him to see if he starts running more over the next couple of weeks.

Carlos Gonzalez: Gonzalez, the main piece Rockies acquired from the A’s in the Matt Holliday deal over the offseason, is still being used only sparingly by the Rox, but in 28 at-bats since the All-Star break he’s batting .429 with a home run, two RBI and three steals. In the first half, he hit just .202 in 84 at-bats. The second-half sample size is obviously small, and the fact he’s not playing every day hinders his value. However, if he continues to hit, the Rockies, who are in the thick of the wild card race, will be forced to stick him in the lineup more consistently, so there is potential value here. The real value, though, lies is keeper leagues.

Miguel Montero: It took Montero 63 games and 191 at-bats in the first half to accumulate five home runs and 19 RBI to go along with his .267 batting average. So far in the second half, the catcher already has six home runs and 14 RBI, and it’s taken him only 15 games and 59 at-bats – not to mention his .373 batting clip. While the outburst is encouraging, Montero has shown flashes of relevance in the past – most notably when he hit .429-4-9 last August – only to revert back to his light-hitting ways, so we need to see more to determine whether he can be a consistent fantasy backstop down the road.

Rick Ankiel: Ankiel looked lost for most of the first half, batting a measly .215 and blasting just five home runs with 22 RBI in 67 first-half games. Since the All-Star game, he has posted a .375-3-9 line in 48 at-bats. Given that Colby Rasmus, who sees time in center field along with Ankiel, has just three hits in 41 second-half at-bats (.073 BA), the former pitcher should continue getting the majority of the playing time for the foreseeable future. All told, Ankiel has long been a very streaky hitter, so this current run of good fortune may not last long, but the hot start is good to see.

Tags: Carl Crawford, Carlos Gonzalez, Colby Rasmus, Eugenio Velez, Matt Holliday, Miguel Montero, Rick Ankiel

Box Score Bunts

Box Score Bunts from Monday’s action…

Nationals 8, Pirates 4: Adam Dunn’s hot streak continued on Monday, as he went 3-for-4 three RBI and his 27th home run. Over his last 13 games, Dunn is batting .395 with three dingers and 14 RBI. He’s also hitting .280 on the season, which is quite impressive considering he entered the season with a .247 career batting average. The slugger has never batted higher than .266 and currently sports a bloated .344 BABIP (.294 career), so expect his batting average to slip closer to the .260 range before all is said and done.

Rays 10, Royals 4: Zack Greinke had nine strikeouts yesterday, but he suffered his seventh loss of the season, allowing six runs on 10 hits and three walks in five innings. He’s now winless in his last six starts after winning his first six starts of the year. The hard-throwing right-hander hasn’t necessarily been pitching that poorly of late, as he had allowed three or fewer runs in his previous seven starts. It’s just that the Royals, who lost 18 of 25 games in July, aren’t providing much run support.

Cubs 4, Reds 2: Carlos Marmol allowed a run on two hits and a walk in the ninth inning, but he picked up his fourth save of the season with Kevin Gregg resting his tired arm. Manager Lou Piniella plans on keeping Gregg in the closer role despite the fact the right-hander has blown saves in each of his last two appearances. That said, given that the Cubs are in the thick playoff race in the NL Central, Piniella may be forced to make a move in the ninth inning if Gregg’s struggles continue.

Diamondbacks 6, Mets 5: Has there been a bigger surprise this season than Mark Reynolds? On Monday against the Mets, he went 2-for-5 with two home runs and three RBI, putting him on pace for 49 home runs, 113 RBI and 29 steals. His .279 batting average is sure to fall over the final two months, as his current .362 BABIP is not sustainable, but it’s his power and speed combo that makes him so valuable. Heading into Tuesday’s action, Reynolds is the No. 5-ranked player in all of fantasy.

A’s 3, Rangers 2: Brett Anderson didn’t pick up the win, but he had another strong outing on Monday, allowing just two runs on six hits in 7.2 innings of work. He walked three and struck out eight in the outing. Anderson’s 4.20 ERA and 1.30 WHIP this season aren’t anything to write home about, but he posted a 1.87 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in five July starts and is off to a great start in August, as well. He should be owned in all formats at this point.

Astros 4, Giants 3: Batting cleanup for the Giants, Bengie Molina went 1-for-4 with an RBI and strikeout. He’s hitting just .228 over the last three weeks and has just one home run in his last 36 games. Manager Bruce Bochy has indicated that he may remove Molina from the cleanup spot in order to get him going. That said, it’s not like the Giants have another power bat capable of replacing him, so the team’s best bet may be to just ride out the cold streak.

Tigers 6, Orioles 5: Brian Roberts went 2-for-4 at the plate with his ninth homer, the same number he had in 155 games in 2008. Since the All-Star break, he’s batting .351 in 17 games, and he’s on pace to finish the season with 14 home runs, which would be his highest total since his breakout season in 2005, when he smashed 18.

Padres 4, Braves 2: Kyle Blanks went just 1-for-4 on Monday, but he hit his sixth home run of the season. All six of his homers have come in the last 14 games. Blanks’ strikeout rate has increased dramatically since getting called up to the big leagues (34 percent with the Padres, compared to 27 percent at Triple-A), as he holds a putrid 66 percent contact rate at the big-league level. So, expect the power to continue, but also expect his batting average, which currently sits at .223, to continue to be a drain.

Brewers 6, Dodgers 5: Manny Ramirez went just 1-for-5 at the plate, whiffed twice and left a team-high five runners on base. The aloof slugger is hitting just .210 over his last 17 games and hasn’t registered an RBI in any of the last 10 games. Manager Joe Torre has stated that Manny’s recent struggles aren’t the result of getting hit by a pitch on his left hand on July 21, but the outfielder is clearly struggling right now.

Tags: Adam Dunn, Bengie Molina, Brett Anderson, Brian Roberts, Bruce Bochy, Carlos Marmol, Joe Torre, Kevin Gregg, Kyle Blanks, Lou Piniella, Manny Ramirez, Mark Reynolds, Zack Greinke