Three Thoughts: Boston Red Sox

Continuing our team-by-team, three-thought series, here are my early 2010 thoughts on the Red Sox.

1. Mixed feelings on Adrian Beltre
On one hand, Beltre is leaving Safeco Field, one of the least hitter-friendly parks in the majors, where he’s just a .252 career hitter, and he’s moving to Fenway Park, a big upgrade. Beltre also hit .290-30-108 in 144 road games over 2007 and 2008, his last two healthy seasons. But there’s the sticking point: health. Beltre was limited to just 111 games in 2009 due to shoulder (and groin) issues, and thumb injuries kept him from reaching 150 games in 2007 and 2008. This looks to be a great situation for Beltre to get a fresh start, but at age 30 these durability issues may not simply go away.

2. Don’t bet on a rebound from Dice-K
Few owners are excited about Daisuke Matsuzaka following his injury-stricken 2009 campaign that saw him go 4-6 with a 5.76 ERA and 1.87 WHIP in 12 starts. Then again, the right-hander is also only one year removed from winning 18 games and posting a 2.90 ERA. Even so, there are too many warning signs in Dice-K’s skill set for me to predict a rebound in 2010. The shoulder issues that plagued him last year are one thing, but almost all indicators show his 2008 season was a fluke, anyway. His 5.1 BB/9 rate was a disaster, and his ERA was artificially deflated by a .267 BABIP. Plus, he allowed just 12 home runs despite being a flyball pitcher in Fenway Park. Talk about luck. Even with health, this is not a fantasy ace; he’s AL-only material, at best.

3. Marco Scutaro has nowhere to go but down
Scutaro turned his career year in 2009 – .282-12-60-100-14 – into a two-year contract with the Red Sox. Good for him. But fantasy owners should realize last season was a picture-perfect scenario for Scutaro in which everything came together perfectly. The fact he posted his highest full-season flyball rate (43.6%) and walk rate (13.2%) is encouraging, but I have a difficult time believing he’s suddenly turned a corner at age 34. Scutaro is a career .265 hitter who never hit double-digit home runs or stole double-digit bases prior to last season, and while he’ll be part of a better lineup in Boston, he’ll be batting at the bottom of the order, as opposed to leadoff, where he spent every game with the Blue Jays in 2009. When evaluating Scutaro, look at the big picture – not what you saw last season.

Tags: Adrian Beltre, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Dice-K, Marcu Scutaro

Three Thoughts: Baltimore Orioles

As we get set for spring training, let’s get a new series started here at Under The Tag. Over the next couple of weeks and months, we’ll go team by team and dissect three of my early 2010 thoughts for each squad.

1. Chris Tillman could surprise
Tillman’s 2009 stat line with the Orioles – 5.40 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 12 starts – says you’re better off looking elsewhere for starting pitching help this season. And the 5.4 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 rates don’t say much different. But let’s not forget this former second-round pick held a 2.70 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 18 Triple-A starts before his promotion last year, not to mention a 9.2 K/9 rate and 2.4 walk rate. Pitching in the AL East is no picnic, and there are surely some more bumps in the road, but Tillman is the perfect type of pitcher to target late in AL-only leagues. His draft-day cost will be minimal, but the upside is significant.

2. Brian Roberts’ decline could be around the corner
I won’t argue that Roberts isn’t a reliable fantasy option. I currently have him ranked fourth amongst second basemen, and he was a top-35 hitter last season, hitting .283 with 16 home runs, 79 RBI, 30 steals and 110 runs. That said, it’s hard not to notice that his stolen bases and stolen base attempts have declined drastically the last two years. He went from 50 steals (57 attempts) in 2007 to 40 steals (50 attempts) in 2008 and 30 steals (37 attempts) last season. His declining stolen base total can be at least partly attributed to the fact hit a career-high 56 doubles last season and hit 16 homers (his highest total since 2005), but for a guy nearing his mid 30s, trends like this one need to be monitored.

3. Garrett Atkins has nowhere to go but up
On the surface, this statement is completely true. After all, Atkins hit just .226-9-48 in 126 games last year, so it’s not like things can get much worse. But that doesn’t mean things will be getting a whole lot better, either. Atkins is just a career .252 hitter away from Coors Field, including a .200 road average last season, so a move to another park – even an above-average hitting one like Camden Yards – won’t help his bottom line.
His average will rebound to some extent this year as last year’s .247 BABIP normalizes, but the fact he hit just .199 against right-handers in 2009 is not a good sign. Atkins is only AL-only fodder at this point.

Tags: Chris Tillman, Garrett Atkins

Updated Top 10s

Towards the end of the 2009 season and into the offseason, I offered my preliminary Top 10s for 2010. Well, as the adage goes, time brings change. Thus, my Top 10s have changed considerably over the last couple months. They’re sure to continue to shift as we near spring training, but I thought I’d pass along the updated lists…

Catchers

1. Joe Mauer
2. Victor Martinez
3. Brian McCann
4. Kurt Suzuki
5. Jorge Posada
6. Bengie Molina
7. Miguel Montero
8. Matt Wieters
9. Russell Martin
10. Mike Napoli

First Base

1. Albert Pujols
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Ryan Howard
4. Mark Teixeira
5. Prince Fielder
6. Adrian Gonzalez
7. Justin Morneau
8. Kendry Morales
9. Joey Votto
10. Lance Berkman

Second Base

1. Chase Utley
2. Ian Kinsler
3. Brian Roberts
4. Dustin Pedroia
5. Brandon Phillips
6. Ben Zobrist
7. Robinson Cano
8. Aaron Hill
9. Dan Uggla
10. Ian Stewart

Third Base

1. Alex Rodriguez
2. David Wright
3. Evan Longoria
4. Pablo Sandoval
5. Ryan Zimmerman
6. Mark Reynolds
7. Kevin Youkilis
8. Chone Figgins
9. Aramis Ramirez
10. Michael Young

Shortstop

1. Hanley Ramirez
2. Jose Reyes
3. Troy Tulowitzki
4. Jimmy Rollins
5. Derek Jeter
6. Alexei Ramirez
7. Miguel Tejada
8. Jhonny Peralta
9. Yunel Escobar
10. Elvis Andrus

Outfield

1. Ryan Braun
2. Matt Kemp
3. Carl Crawford
4. Jacoby Ellsbury
5. Matt Holliday
6. Justin Upton
7. Ichiro Suzuki
8. Grady Sizemore
9. Bobby Abreu
10. B.J. Upton

Starting Pitchers

1. Tim Lincecum
2. Roy Halladay
3. Zack Greinke
4. Felix Hernandez
5. CC Sabathia
6. Justin Verlander
7. Jon Lester
8. Adam Wainwright
9. Dan Haren
10. Cliff Lee

Relief Pitchers

1. Joe Nathan
2. Jonathan Broxton
3. Jonathan Papelbon
4. Mariano Rivera
5. Joakim Soria
6. Andrew Bailey
7. Heath Bell
8. Huston Street
9. Francisco Rodriguez
10. Chad Qualls

Top 10 Closers for 2010

Continuing the rundown of my top 10 players per position for 2010, here’s my take on the closers:

1. Joe Nathan – Posted a career-high 47 saves in 2009 and is as safe as they come.

2. Mariano Rivera – He’s getting up there in age, but he keeps doing it year after year.

3. Jonathan Broxton – With 114 Ks in 76 innings, it’s easy to see why he’s so high up on this list.

4. Jonathan Papelbon – His walk rate shot up to 3.2 in 2009, but he’s still elite.

5. Joakim Soria – Soria saved only 30 games last year, but he’s still one of the game’s best.

6. Heath Bell – Bell made Padres fans forget about Trevor Hoffman very quickly.

7. David Aardsma – The high walk rate (4.3) is a concern, but he misses enough bats to make up for it.

8. Francisco Rodriguez – His numbers are trending in the wrong direction, but he still racks up the saves.

9. Andrew Bailey – Bailey may deserve to be higher on this list, but I want to see a little more.

10. Huston Street – I still worry about his durability, but it’s hard to argue with a 10.2 K/ 9 rate and 1.9 BB/9 rate.

Top 10 Starting Pitchers for 2010

Continuing the rundown of my top 10 players per position for 2010, here’s my take on the starting pitchers:

1. Tim Lincecum – This list can be put together in a variety of ways, but this is the one no-brainer.

2. Roy Halladay – Few pitchers in the game are as reliable as Halladay, who struck out a career-best 208 hitters in 2009.

3. Felix Hernandez – Felix finally put it all together after a few seasons of not living up to the hype.

4. CC Sabathia – CC’s first year in pinstripes was a success, though his K/9 rate dropped from 8.9 to 7.7.

5. Zack Greinke – The 2.16 ERA and 242 strikeouts established him as one of the best in the game. He won 16 games for a terrible Royals, which is impressive all by itself, but that total may be difficult to repeat.

6. Justin Verlander – Bounced back after a disappointing 2008 season. His 269 Ks led the big leagues.

7. Dan Haren – Posted a career high 223 strikeouts and has made at least 33 starts in five straight seasons.

8. Johan Santana – Santana is expected to be fully recovery from elbow surgery by next season, but I’m concerned enough to have him this low in the top-10.

9. Adam Wainwright – Wainwright posted career highs in wins, innings, strikeouts and ERA in 2009. What’s not to like?

10. Chris Carpenter – His low strikeout total (144) is a negative, but his 2.24 ERA and 1.01 WHIP means he needs to be on this list.

Top 10 Outfielders for 2010

Continuing the rundown of my top 10 players per position for 2010, here’s my take on the outfielders:

1. Ryan Braun – With a .320 BA, 32 home runs, 114 RBI and 20 steals, Braun has cemented himself at the top of the outfield heap.

2. Matt Kemp – Kemp has emerged as one of the elite at the position and should once again challenge for 30/30 in 2010.

3. Carl Crawford – Proved he was fully healthy after an injury-stricken 2008 season. His 60 steals were a career high.

4. Jacoby Ellsbury – His 70 steals led baseball, and he hit .301, to boot.

5. Matt Holliday – Holliday’s value could fluctuate depending on where he signs, but he’s still one of the top options at the position.

6. Ichiro Suzuki – Ichiro’s age indicates he could be slowing down soon, but his .352 batting average this season tells us otherwise.

7. Grady Sizemore – I’m not fully confident with this ranking because of Sizemore’s injury issues, but early indications are that he’ll be 100 percent in spring training.

8. Jason Bay – The .267 batting average was a little lacking, but his 36 home runs and 119 RBI were both career highs. His 13 steals were his most since 2005, as well.

9. Justin Upton – Hit .300 with 26 home runs and 20 steals and there’s still room to grow.

10. Carlos Beltran – If healthy, he’s still one of the best multi-dimensional outfielders in the game.

Tags: Carl Crawford, Carlos Beltran, Grady Sizemore, Ichiro Suzuki, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jason Bay, Justin Upton, Matt Holliday, Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun

Top 10 Shortstops for 2010

Continuing the rundown of my top 10 players per position for 2010, here’s my take on the shortstops:

1. Hanley Ramirez – He’s not running as much as he used to, but he’s still a 25/25 threat at the shortstop position and will be adding a batting title to his resume.

2. Jimmy Rollins – The batting average is down, but the rest of his numbers are there. I’m still buying.

3. Troy Tulowitzki – With 30-plus homers, 20 steals and a batting average near .300, he’s cemented as one of the top commodities at the position.

4. Derek Jeter – Talks of his demise were obviously overstated. That said, I’m not comfortable predicting a repeat.

5. Jose Reyes – The latest word is that Reyes’ hamstring surgery won’t impact his 2010, but he still has to be considered a major risk at this point. I can see moving him higher as the season gets closer, depending on how he looks.

6. Alexei Ramirez – Didn’t meet lofty expectations, but still provided solid value across the board.

7. Jason Bartlett – Not sure where the power came from, but the speed is legit. Be careful to not overpay.

8. Elvis Andrus – Still has room to grow, but showed great progress in his rookie season and has 50-steal upside.

9. Miguel Tejada – The power isn’t what it used to be, but he can still produce runs and hit for average.

10. Yunel Escobar – Nothing flashy, but he does many things well.

Tags: Alexei Ramirez, Derek Jeter, Elvis Andrus, Hanley Ramirez, Jason Bartlett, Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes, Miguel Tejada, Troy Tulowitzki, Yunel Escobar

Top 10 Third Basemen for 2010

Continuing the rundown of my top 10 players per position for 2010, here’s my take on the third basemen:

1. Alex Rodriguez – Still at the top of the heap, even after an injury-shortened season.

2. Evan Longoria – Couldn’t keep things up after a torrid start, but there’s still nowhere for him to go but up.

3. David Wright – The power should rebound to an extent, but I don’t see him returning to 30 homers.

4. Mark Reynolds – The batting average hurts, and I definitely see a regression next season, but it’s hard to beat the power/speed combo.

5. Ryan Zimmmerman – Produced his first 30-homer, 100-RBI season and is still trending upward, assuming he can stay healthy.

6. Chone Figgins – After failing to play at least 120 games each of the last two years, Figgins is back on the top of his game.

7. Pablo Sandoval – Has established himself as one of the top young hitters in the game, although I’m not sure I see much more power development in the coming years.

8. Kevin Youkilis – Nothing flashy, but he gets the job done.

9. Aramis Ramirez – Still a top run producer at the position when healthy, but his lack of durability over the last few seasons drops him a couple spots.

10. Michael Young – No longer as valuable as a third baseman, but Young is still one of the more underrated players in the game.

Tags: A-Rod, Alex Rodriguez, Aramis Ramirez, Chone Figgins, David Wright, Evan Longoria, Kevin Youkilis, Mark Reynolds, Michael Young, Pablo Sandoval, Ryan Zimmerman

Top Second Basemen for 2010

Continuing the rundown of my top 10 players per position for 2010, here’s my take on the second basemen:

1. Chase Utley – No debate here. He’s the best in the business at the position.

2. Ian Kinsler – A higher batting average would be nice, but no one at second base can match his power/speedo combo.

3. Brian Roberts – Roberts is like a buffet. He offers owners plenty of everything.

4. Robinson Cano – Cano lacks speed, but he has power and is the best batting average bat at the position.

5. Dustin Pedroia – Aside from batting average, his numbers will end up being pretty close to last year’s.

6. Aaron Hill – I’ll expect a drop-off in 2010, but not much of one.

7. Brandon Phillips – Somewhat underappreciated considering he’s an annual 20/20 guy.

8. Ben Zobrist – A late bloomer, Zobrist does it all, although some regression could occur.

9. Jose Lopez – Lopez isn’t patient enough to consistently hit for a high average, but he’s entering his peak power years.

10. Asdrubal Cabrera – Not a sexy option, by any means, but he knows how to swipe a bag and could finish this year with a .300 batting average.

Tags: Aaron Hill, Asdrubal Cabrera, Ben Zobrist, Brandon Phillips, Brian Roberts, Chase Utley, Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler, Jose Lopez, Robinson Cano

Football Picks

Yes, this is supposed to be a baseball blog, but with the NFL season getting underway tonight, can you blame me if I can’t help but focus on the gridiron of late? I’ll continue going through my top 10s at each position for the 2010 baseball season at some point, but today I’m going to run down my picks for the 2009 NFL campaign. Here we go…

AFC East Winner: Patriots
AFC North Winner: Pittsburgh
AFC South Winner: Colts
AFC West Winner: Chargers
Wild Card Winners: Titans, Ravens

NFC East Winner: Giants
NFC North Winner: Packers
NFC South Winner: Falcons
NFC West Winner: Seahawks
Wild Card Winners: Eagles, Bears

AFC Champ: Patriots
NFC Champ: Packers

Super Bowl Winner: Patriots

Top 10 Catchers for 2010

Continuing with the trend of running down my top 10 players per position for 2010, here’s my take on the catchers:

1. Joe Mauer – Not 100 percent convinced the power is for real, but he’s hitting .373, so does it matter?

2. Victor Martinez – The fact he can play first base and DH when he’s not catching helps his value.

3. Brian McCann – McCann is the top hitting catcher in the National League, hands down.

4. Mike Napoli – He’s not a legit .290 hitter, but his power rivals that of any catcher in the game.

5. Jorge Posada – Posada’s age is a concern, but he just continues to hit.

6. Ryan Doumit – He’s struggled since coming back from injury, but I’m still a believer in his bat.

7. Bengie Molina – Not an outstanding option, but he’s solid amidst a bunch of question marks.

8. Geovany Soto – He worries me, but I don’t believe 2008 was a complete fluke.

9. Russell Martin – Martin isn’t running as much, and his power has disappeared. I’m pessimistic.

10. Matt Wieters – Has been unspectacular in his debut, but we all know the upside.

Tags: Bengie Molina, Brian McCann, Geovany Soto, Joe Mauer, Jorge Posada, Matt Wieters, Mike Napoli, Russell Martin, Ryan Doumit, Victor Martinez

Top 10 First Basemen for 2010

Here’s a quick rundown of my tentative top 10 first basemen for 2010. This list will obviously change dramatically over the offseason, but it’s always fun to start looking ahead. We’ll cover other positions in future installments.

1. Albert Pujols – He’s the only real no-brainer on the list.

2. Miguel Cabrera – Hasn’t shown the power upside of others, but only Albert can match his BA.

3. Mark Teixieira – Considered Fielder here, but Tex just feels safer.

4. Prince Fielder – Not convinced he’s a .300 hitter, but he’s a better hitter than Ryan Howard.

5. Ryan Howard – His batting average can hurt you, but his power is unmatched.

6. Justin Morneau – Isn’t elite in any category, but he’s productive across the board.

7. Adrian Gonzalez – Similar to Morneau, only with less batting average potential.

8. Lance Berkman – I’m not entirely confident with this ranking, but he should bounce back with health.

9. Kendry Morales – Coming into his own, with both power and BA potential. Could move higher.

10. Carlos Pena – Power production is great, but the batting average hurts.

Tags: Adrian Gonzalez, Albert Pujols, Carlos Pena, Justin Morneau, Kendry Morales, Lance Berkman, Mark Teixeira, Miguel Cabrera, Princer Fielder, Ryan Howard

Smoltz stellar in Cardinals debut

Welcome back to the National League, Mr. Smoltz.

In John Smoltz’s Cardinals debut on Sunday against the Padres, he hurled five shutout innings, allowing only three hits and no walks while striking out nine. He picked up the victory in the Cardinals’ 5-2 win in San Diego. Considering the right-hander entered Sunday’s outing with a 8.33 ERA in eight starts with the Red Sox, his performance against the Padres was both welcoming and surprising.

Obviously, it’s just one start, so it’s too early to draw any real conclusions about Smoltz and his prospects for the rest of the season, but let’s go over some of the theories as to why he had so much success on Sunday:

1. Smoltz said he tweaked his mechanics prior to his Cardinals debut, putting his heel closer to the pitching rubber.

2. The Cardinals say Smoltz was tipping his pitches while with the Red Sox. The right-hander confirms this could be a possibility.

3. The Padres are terrible, as they sport a .239 team batting average, the worst mark in the league, implying that the team’s lineup can make even a marginal pitcher look like a Cy Young candidate.

All told, the reasoning is probably a mixture of all three. Smoltz will likely get only a handful of starts the rest of the way, but he immediately becomes an option in NL-only leagues and is worth monitoring in mixed formats.

Tags: John Smoltz

Alex Gordon to Triple-A

The Royals made a surprising move on Tuesday, sending Alex Gordon to Triple-A Omaha to open up a roster spot for Kyle Farnsworth, who is returning from the disabled list after being sidelined since June 24 with a groin injury. Gordon will join the team for Wednesday’s game at Tacoma.

At first glance, this is just another head-scratching move by a Royals team that is yet again collecting dust in the basement of the AL Central. However, after looking at the move more closely, it actually makes sense.

Gordon is hitting just .198 this season and just .227 since returning from his hip injury, and, if you remember, he went straight from Double-A in 2006 to the big leagues in 2007, so this will be his first exposure to Triple-A. Gordon has had some success in the big leagues, but he’s been a disappointment overall, as hit .248 career average in 314 big-league games can attest.

As an aside, there are reports that say this move could have been made to delay Gordon’s impending free agency. Apparently, if he stays in the minors for more than 20 days, he won’t become a free agent until 2013 instead of 2012. That said, big-league rosters expand on September 1 (and a player’s service time isn’t affected if he’s called up at that point), so I’m not sure how Gordon’s service time will be affected in all of this.

All told, it certainly couldn’t hurt for Gordon to spend a few weeks in the minors as he tries to find his stroke. And with the Royals having nothing to play for, what do they have to lose?

Tags: Add new tag, Alex Gordon, Royals, Triple-A Omaha

Surprising Second-Half Starts

As fantasy owners, we love to dissect first- and second-half stats. We look at past splits when evaluating mid-season player trades, and we use them when evaluating players and projecting breakout or fall-offs for the upcoming season, among other things. At this point, we aren’t even three weeks past the All-Star break, but why wait? Let’s look at some lesser-appreciated commodities who have started the second half off on the right foot.

Nyjer Morgan: After hitting a respectable .280 with 24 swipes in the first half, Morgan has hit .403-1-6 with eight steals in 77 post-break at-bats. However, it wasn’t necessarily the All-Star break that sparked the speedster’s hot streak; it was his trade to the Nationals. Before the deal, he hit .277 with 18 steals in 71 games. Since being traded, he’s batting .367 with 14 swipes in just 30 games. That’s an average of 0.47 steals per game with the Nats. By comparison, Carl Crawford, who leads the majors with 51 steals, averages a nearly identical 0.48 steals per game. Morgan’s stolen-base pace will surely wane over the final two months, but he should still be considered an elite steals source the rest of the way.

Eugenio Velez: Velez was largely worthless for the Giants early in the season, when he hit just .194 with no RBI and one steal in 36 at-bats, but he’s looked like a different hitter since getting called up in late July. In 38 post-break at-bats, he’s hitting .447 with a home run and eight RBI. He’s yet to steal a base, which is his real calling card in fantasy, but he’s settled into the Giants’ leadoff spot for the time being, which will, at the very least, give him an opportunity to score runs. Watch him to see if he starts running more over the next couple of weeks.

Carlos Gonzalez: Gonzalez, the main piece Rockies acquired from the A’s in the Matt Holliday deal over the offseason, is still being used only sparingly by the Rox, but in 28 at-bats since the All-Star break he’s batting .429 with a home run, two RBI and three steals. In the first half, he hit just .202 in 84 at-bats. The second-half sample size is obviously small, and the fact he’s not playing every day hinders his value. However, if he continues to hit, the Rockies, who are in the thick of the wild card race, will be forced to stick him in the lineup more consistently, so there is potential value here. The real value, though, lies is keeper leagues.

Miguel Montero: It took Montero 63 games and 191 at-bats in the first half to accumulate five home runs and 19 RBI to go along with his .267 batting average. So far in the second half, the catcher already has six home runs and 14 RBI, and it’s taken him only 15 games and 59 at-bats – not to mention his .373 batting clip. While the outburst is encouraging, Montero has shown flashes of relevance in the past – most notably when he hit .429-4-9 last August – only to revert back to his light-hitting ways, so we need to see more to determine whether he can be a consistent fantasy backstop down the road.

Rick Ankiel: Ankiel looked lost for most of the first half, batting a measly .215 and blasting just five home runs with 22 RBI in 67 first-half games. Since the All-Star game, he has posted a .375-3-9 line in 48 at-bats. Given that Colby Rasmus, who sees time in center field along with Ankiel, has just three hits in 41 second-half at-bats (.073 BA), the former pitcher should continue getting the majority of the playing time for the foreseeable future. All told, Ankiel has long been a very streaky hitter, so this current run of good fortune may not last long, but the hot start is good to see.

Tags: Carl Crawford, Carlos Gonzalez, Colby Rasmus, Eugenio Velez, Matt Holliday, Miguel Montero, Rick Ankiel

Box Score Bunts

Box Score Bunts from Monday’s action…

Nationals 8, Pirates 4: Adam Dunn’s hot streak continued on Monday, as he went 3-for-4 three RBI and his 27th home run. Over his last 13 games, Dunn is batting .395 with three dingers and 14 RBI. He’s also hitting .280 on the season, which is quite impressive considering he entered the season with a .247 career batting average. The slugger has never batted higher than .266 and currently sports a bloated .344 BABIP (.294 career), so expect his batting average to slip closer to the .260 range before all is said and done.

Rays 10, Royals 4: Zack Greinke had nine strikeouts yesterday, but he suffered his seventh loss of the season, allowing six runs on 10 hits and three walks in five innings. He’s now winless in his last six starts after winning his first six starts of the year. The hard-throwing right-hander hasn’t necessarily been pitching that poorly of late, as he had allowed three or fewer runs in his previous seven starts. It’s just that the Royals, who lost 18 of 25 games in July, aren’t providing much run support.

Cubs 4, Reds 2: Carlos Marmol allowed a run on two hits and a walk in the ninth inning, but he picked up his fourth save of the season with Kevin Gregg resting his tired arm. Manager Lou Piniella plans on keeping Gregg in the closer role despite the fact the right-hander has blown saves in each of his last two appearances. That said, given that the Cubs are in the thick playoff race in the NL Central, Piniella may be forced to make a move in the ninth inning if Gregg’s struggles continue.

Diamondbacks 6, Mets 5: Has there been a bigger surprise this season than Mark Reynolds? On Monday against the Mets, he went 2-for-5 with two home runs and three RBI, putting him on pace for 49 home runs, 113 RBI and 29 steals. His .279 batting average is sure to fall over the final two months, as his current .362 BABIP is not sustainable, but it’s his power and speed combo that makes him so valuable. Heading into Tuesday’s action, Reynolds is the No. 5-ranked player in all of fantasy.

A’s 3, Rangers 2: Brett Anderson didn’t pick up the win, but he had another strong outing on Monday, allowing just two runs on six hits in 7.2 innings of work. He walked three and struck out eight in the outing. Anderson’s 4.20 ERA and 1.30 WHIP this season aren’t anything to write home about, but he posted a 1.87 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in five July starts and is off to a great start in August, as well. He should be owned in all formats at this point.

Astros 4, Giants 3: Batting cleanup for the Giants, Bengie Molina went 1-for-4 with an RBI and strikeout. He’s hitting just .228 over the last three weeks and has just one home run in his last 36 games. Manager Bruce Bochy has indicated that he may remove Molina from the cleanup spot in order to get him going. That said, it’s not like the Giants have another power bat capable of replacing him, so the team’s best bet may be to just ride out the cold streak.

Tigers 6, Orioles 5: Brian Roberts went 2-for-4 at the plate with his ninth homer, the same number he had in 155 games in 2008. Since the All-Star break, he’s batting .351 in 17 games, and he’s on pace to finish the season with 14 home runs, which would be his highest total since his breakout season in 2005, when he smashed 18.

Padres 4, Braves 2: Kyle Blanks went just 1-for-4 on Monday, but he hit his sixth home run of the season. All six of his homers have come in the last 14 games. Blanks’ strikeout rate has increased dramatically since getting called up to the big leagues (34 percent with the Padres, compared to 27 percent at Triple-A), as he holds a putrid 66 percent contact rate at the big-league level. So, expect the power to continue, but also expect his batting average, which currently sits at .223, to continue to be a drain.

Brewers 6, Dodgers 5: Manny Ramirez went just 1-for-5 at the plate, whiffed twice and left a team-high five runners on base. The aloof slugger is hitting just .210 over his last 17 games and hasn’t registered an RBI in any of the last 10 games. Manager Joe Torre has stated that Manny’s recent struggles aren’t the result of getting hit by a pitch on his left hand on July 21, but the outfielder is clearly struggling right now.

Tags: Adam Dunn, Bengie Molina, Brett Anderson, Brian Roberts, Bruce Bochy, Carlos Marmol, Joe Torre, Kevin Gregg, Kyle Blanks, Lou Piniella, Manny Ramirez, Mark Reynolds, Zack Greinke

Calling Chris Tillman

Let’s begin today’s entry with a question.

Which pitcher would you rather have, Player A or Player B?

Player A: 3-3, 55.1 IP, 7.64 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, 45 Ks, 37 walks
Player B: 1-7, 56.1 IP, 6.55 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 30 Ks, 21 walks

(Insert Jeopardy music here)

Ready?

Well, it’s kind of a trick question, because, as you can probably tell, you don’t want either of those guys. Player A is Rich Hill, and Player B is Jason Berken, both of whom are currently occupying spots in Baltimore’s starting rotation.

Thankfully, it appears that’s about to change. It remains to be seen just who will be removed from the rotation, but it’s clear who will be stepping into that spot once it becomes vacant, and that’s 6-foot-5 right-hander Chris Tillman, who is expected to make his debut next week against the Royals, according to the Baltimore Sun.

Tillman, one of the key pieces the Orioles received from Seattle in the Erik Bedard deal, is regarded as one of the top pitching prospects in the minors, and he’s currently 8-5 with a 2.42 ERA in 17 Triple-A starts. He also has 95 strikeouts in 93 innings, with a stellar 4.3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The 21-year-old has been the victim of control issues in the past, as he posted a 4.3 BB/9 rate in 2008 in Double-A and his 4.2 mark between Low- and High-A in 2007. However, those struggles have subsided, evidenced by his 2.1 BB/9 rate this season.

Armed with a fastball that sits in the 92-94 mph range, a swing-and miss curveball and a developing changeup, Tillman has that No. 1 starter potential that fantasy owners get excited about. Determining whether he’ll have immediate success in the big leagues, however, is as easy as nailing Jell-O to a tree. We’ve seen many high-end prospects perform well out of the gate in the past (Rich Harden and Jered Weaver), but we’ve seen just as many who take years to get acclimated to the big leagues (Homer Bailey, Edwin Jackson).

That said, there is a ton of potential here, and Tillman has as much of a chance to succeed right away as any rookie hurler who’s been called up this year (or will be called up in the future), aside from perhaps Atlanta’s Tommy Hanson. In short, the young right-hander should be scooped up in all AL-only leagues and deeper mixed formats if he isn’t owned already.

Tags: Chris Tillman, Edwin Jackson, Erik Bedard, Homer Bailey, Jason Berken, Jered Weaver, Rich Harden, Rich Hill, Tommy Hanson

Jason Schmidt is back… or is he?

Jason Schmidt returned to the mound for the Dodgers on Monday night against the Reds. It was his first start since 2007, as he’s been working his way back from shoulder surgery. Despite allowing three runs before registering a single out, the right-hander worked his way through five innings and 91 pitches and picked up the victory. His final line included just the three earned runs on five hits and three walks and two strikeouts.

While the outing was, for the most part, a success, there are obvious concerns about Schmidt going forward. As I wrote in my daily Box Score Bunts column earlier today, Schmidt’s average fastball velocity last night was 86.9 mph, and he never even touched 90. Back in 2006, when the right-hander made 32 starts and posted a 3.59 ERA for the Giants, his fastball averaged 92 mph and could still get into the mid 90s at times. That was the last time Schmidt was an effective big league pitcher, as he made only six starts in 2007 (and posted a 6.31 ERA) and missed the entire 2008 season.

Sure, it’s possible Schmidt can add a couple of ticks back on his fastball in the coming weeks as he gets back into the swing of things, but there’s no getting around the fact he’s going to have to learn how to become a pitch-to-contact guy, when he’s always been a swing-and-miss pitcher in the past. He’ll have to adjust his mental approach, as well as how he attacks hitters.

The short-term problem with pitching to contact is that Schmidt has always been a flyball pitcher. Twelve of his 15 batted-ball outs yesterday were of the flyball variety, and his G/F rate was 0.67 or lower in 2005, 2006 and 2007. In order to have success at a lower velocity, he’ll need to concentrate on working in the lower half of the strike zone.

Schmidt has been in the league long enough that he should be able to change his approach, but it will take some time. Even then, we don’t know how effective he’ll be. All told, Schmidt is a very dangerous fantasy acquisition. He’s worth a flyer in NL-only formats, but that’s it.

Tags: Jason Schmidt

Box Score Bunts

On today’s menu is another episode of Box Score Bunts. Let’s get to it.

Phillies 5, Marlins 0: J.A. Happ twirled a gem, going seven shutout winning with four Ks and one walk and improving his record to 7-0. The lefty should continue to be a decent fantasy starter the rest of the way – perhaps in the mold of a Mark Buehrle – but a .242 BABIP as a starter this year indicates that some tougher times figure to be ahead.

Reds 5, Brewers 3: Mat Gamel started at third base and went 1-for-4 against the Reds on Sunday. However, he was optioned to Triple-A Nashville after the game to make room on the roster for the newly acquired Felipe Lopez. Gamel still profiles as a middle-of-the-order bat for the Brewers down the road, but his .239-4-16 line and below-average defense in 48 games just wasn’t cutting it. The young slugger, who hit .336 with eight homers and 31 RBI in 33 games prior to his promotion, is still a guy to keep an eye on long term.

Giants 4, Pirates 3: Matt Cain, who hurled seven innings of one-run ball with eight Ks and just two walks against the Bucs, is finally getting the attention he deserves, thanks to his 11 wins and 2.32 ERA this season. What’s interesting is that his peripherals are nearly identical to those he posted last year, when he won only eight games. It’s amazing what a little luck will do to alter the public’s perception.

Cubs 11, Nationals 3: Alfonso Soriano is beginning to get back on track, as he’s batting .355 over the past nine contests and has hit homers in each of the last two games, breaking a 29-game homerless streak. As I wrote last week, don’t expect many steals the rest of the way, but the power should be there.

Cardinals 2, Diamondbacks 1: The Cardinals got yet another stellar outing from Joel Pineiro, who tossed seven innings of one-run ball against the D’Backs, striking out three and walking none. He’s now 2-0 with a 1.57 ERA and 0.70 WHIP in his last three starts. Pineiro’s low strikeout rate (3.8) still has many fantasy owners skeptical, but his 4.3 K/BB rate is the ninth-best mark in the league. That’s an elite K/BB rate, folks, meaning Pineiro shouldn’t be overlooked so quickly.

Rockies 6, Padres 1: Adrian Gonzalez went 1-for-4 with a run scored, and his batting average is now sitting at .248, which is significantly lower than last year’s .279 mark. Still, he’s already drawn 72 walks this season (he had 74 all of last year), and his BABIP sits a .243, so we should see the first baseman’s batting average creep closer to his career .277 mark in the second half.

Dodgers 4, Astros 3: Batting seventh against the Astros on Sunday, Matt Kemp went 3-for-3 at the plate with three hits, a walk and four runs scored, not to mention his 12 homer and 20^th steal. Among those who qualify, Kemp’s .321 batting average and .385 OBP both lead the Dodgers, yet he consistently hits in the bottom half of the lineup. I’ve complained about this before – and I’m certainly not the only one – but I still don’t get it.

Braves 7, Mets 1: The Mets just can’t seem to catch a break. Fernando Nieve, who’s been at least a serviceable starter of late, was carted off the field yesterday with a leg injury after just one inning. At this point his status is unclear, but it’s a safe bet he’ll be forced to miss some time. In other Mets news, manager Jerry Manuel is apparently considering using Livan Hernandez at first and third base and as a pinch-hitter. Simply stunning.

Mariners 5, Indians 3: With a scoreless ninth inning on Sunday, David Aardsma picked up his 22^nd save of the season and lowered his ERA to 1.83. For those who still insist on paying big money for closers, consider that Seattle’s ninth-inning man, who went undrafted in all but AL-only leagues, currently ranks as a top-15 fantasy pitcher, according to the Rototimes.com Player Rater.

Blue Jays 3, Red Sox 1: J.D. Drew went 0-for-4 on Sunday against Roy Halladay and the Blue Jays, and he’s now hitting just .190 in 14 games since being moved to the leadoff spot. Skipper Terry Francona is considering moving the outfielder down in the order to help him get back on track. It remains to be seen who would step into that role, but Jacoby Ellsbury could be a possibility. Such a move would give Ellsbury’s fantasy value a boost, as his run total would rise significantly.

Yankees 2, Tigers 1: Alex Rodriguez went 2-for-4 with his 19^th dinger of the season in Sunday’s win. Since July 1, A-Rod is batting .321 with seven home runs and 13 RBI in 14 games. It appears he’ll have difficulty reach double-digit steals this season, but he’s on pace for 41 homers and 113 RBI, which is a staggering total considering he missed the entire month of April.

Orioles 10, White Sox 2: After going 1-for-3 on Sunday with two walks, two RBI and two runs scored, Luke Scott is hitting .298, which is considerably better than his averages of the last two years (.257 in 2008; .255 in 2007). The biggest difference from last season is that he’s hitting .316 against left-handers after batting just .215 against southpaws in 2008. Scott is also boasting a 20.7% line drive rate, his highest mark of the last three seasons.

Rays 4, Royals 3: Evan Longoria walked twice and registered his 70^th RBI on Sunday, but he went 0-for-3 at the plate. After batting a combined .327 with 13 homers and 55 RBI through April and May (51 games), the All-Star third baseman has hit just .206 with five home runs and 15 RBI in 36 games since. This is one of those situations where a player’s overall stat line (.280-18-70) helps mask his current struggles.

Angels 1, A’s 0: Brett Anderson entered this season as one of the game’s most hyped prospects, but only recently has he begun to put it all together. He hasn’t allowed a run in any of his last three starts with 18 strikeouts against only three walks, and he took a perfect game into the seventh inning on Sunday against the Angels. His final line for the night included eight frames of shutout ball with only two hits allowed, no walks and six whiffs. At the very least, he’s worth a bench spot in mixed leagues right now.

Rangers 5, Twins 3: Ian Kinsler went 2-for-6 with two home runs, including a walk-off game-winner, on Sunday night, raising his batting average to .251. After hitting .322 in April, he’s failed to hit better than .245 in any month thus far. That said, his .240 BABIP is an indication that the second half should offer better results in the batting average department.

Tags: Adrian Gonzalez, Alex Rodriguez, Alfonso Soriano, Brett Anderson, David Aardsma, Evan Longoria, Fernando Nieve, Ian Kinsler, J.A. Happ, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Livan Hernandez, Luke Scott, Mat Gamel, Matt Cain, Matt Kemp

Pondering Patience

When analyzing baseball players, we generally look at plate patience as a good thing. And it is. I’m not going to sit here and write that taking pitches and working the count isn’t a good idea. However, when perusing the players in both leagues who have exercised the most patience at the plate this season, I was mildly surprised to learn that, as a whole, the players who are taking the most pitches aren’t necessarily posting quality batting averages.

And, sure, we can’t expect all players who consistently work the count to hit for high averages. After all, we have to account for the Adam Dunns and Jack Custs of the world. Still, it was a tad eye-opening.

Here are baseball’s most patient hitters through the first half of the season:

National League
1. Jayson Werth – 4.57 P/PA
2. Adam Dunn – 4.38
3. Casey Blake – 4.36
4. Luis Castillo – 4.34
5. Todd Helton – 4.29
6. Jeremy Hermida – 4.25
7. Nick Johnson – 4.23
8. Brad Hawpe – 4.23
9. David Wright – 4.22
T10. Mike Fontenot – 4.18
T10. Dexter Fowler – 4.18

American League
1. Kevin Youkilis – 4.47 P/PA
2. Russell Branyan – 4.27
3. Jim Thome – 4.27
4. Nick Swisher – 4.25
5. Joe Mauer – 4.24
6. Scott Podsednik – 4.24
7. Shin-Soo Choo – 4.22
8. Johnny Damon – 4.20
9. Chone Figgins – 4.19
10. Jason Giambi – 4.18

As it turns out, only six (Mauer, Figgins, Helton, Johnson, Hawpe, Wright) of the 21 players listed above (two players tied for the 10th spot in the NL) are batting at least .300 this year. That’s only 29 percent. On the other hand, 10 of the 21 are hitting worse than .280 (Werth, Dunn, Hermida, Fontenot, Fowler, Branyan, Thome, Swisher, Damon, Giambi), including six at .260 or below (Werth, Hermida, Fontenot, Thome, Swisher, Giambi) and three at .240 or below (Fontenot, Swisher, Giambi).

If we expand our sample size to include the 20 most patient hitters in each league, we find that only 10 of 41 players (24 percent) are hitting at least .300, 22 of 41 are batting worse than .280, including 18 at .260 or below and nine at .240 or below. So, basically, of the most patient hitters in the game this season, we have roughly the same number of .300+ hitters as we do .240 hitters.

Of course, we could go a lot deeper and analyze historical data to determine just how strong or weak the correlation is between plate patience and batting average, but I’m not sure it’d do us much good. Just take this as some food for thought as you analyze a player’s patience (or lack thereof) at the plate in the future.

Tags: Adam Dunn, Brad Hawpe, Casey Blake, Chone Figgins, David Wright, Dexter Fowler, Jason Giambi, Jayson Werth, Jeremy Hermida, Jim Thome, Joe Mauer, Johnny Damon, Kevin Youkilis, Luis Castillo, Mike Fontenot, Nick Johnson, Nick Swisher, Russell Branyan, Scott Podsednik, Shin-Soo Choo, Todd Helton